RPF, PSD fight for South and Western Provinces (News analysis)

So far, the two parties have between them held a total of 14 rallies in the South and 12 in the West, with equal numbers in the latter. By the end of the day, the ones in the South will jump to 17 as President Paul Kagame has three rallies planned for Nyamagabe, Huye and Nyanza districts. 

The South has the highest number of districts among all provinces, but the West has a higher population even if it has the same number of districts as the East.

PSD has one more rally planned in the South. By the last day of campaigns on August 7, its total in both provinces will be 16 rallies, which is 55 percent of their total campaign rallies. 

It’s hard to determine what the numbers will be for the RPF. Because of security concerns, President Kagame’s campaign schedule is released on the same day that he’s set to campaign in the given areas.

The Southern Province is important because it boasts the nation’s leading training institution, the National University of Rwanda (NUR), which is the hotpot of the country’s elite. The history of the province is in many ways fused with the country’s politics, and it is home to a number of influential people in Rwanda. 

The Western Province, on the other hand, has in most recent times been the main focus of the government’s development programmes. A lot of money has been pumped here to set up various investment projects, which have also extended to parts of the South.

For instance, the once very rural and poor Nyaruguru district (South) now has up to 4000 hectares of tea plantations and a tea factory. The South is currently the rice field of the country, as almost every valley has been turned into rice farmland. Rice is one of the most widely consumed foods in Rwanda today. 

Gisagara and Nyamagabe, both in the South, and Nyamasheke in the West were almost barren lands a few years ago due to the sour nature of the soil. The government initiated studies that revealed tea, coffee, tobacco and some fruits could actually grow here. Following these studies, and heavy government investment, these districts are now among the highest producers of coffee, tea and fruits.

While it’s unclear whether the RPF considers these areas as its strongholds, it’s content to ride on the fact that they have been transformed under its watch. President Kagame has repeatedly and effortlessly urged his supporters and Rwandans in general, during in his campaigns to “continue with this path, with more coming.”

PSD campaign team considers the South one of its strongholds because it has many members there along with the Eastern Province, where they have planned seven rallies, and Kigali City where their closing rally will be held on August 7. 

Although numerically the South has been the hotbed of activities in this year’s campaigns, it’s really in the west where the real fight has been, sometimes literally. For instance, at Rubengera grounds in Karongi District, police had to break a scuffle between supporters of the two parties involving property.

Turns out the RPF had held a rally here on July 26, a day before PSD’s rally, and had not cleared the desks they had ferried for supporters to sit on and the podium they had erected for their candidate. When PSD arrived on the grounds on July 27 they insisted on using both of them to which RPF supporters objected. 

The tussle here, however, wasn’t only physical. It was also political. Coming right after incumbent president and RPF candidate Paul Kagame, PSD’s Jean Damascene Ntawukuriryayo had everything to fight for. So he changed tack. Where at previous rallies he’d spent no more than ten minutes laying out what he planned to do as president, here he not only spoke for longer but highlighted his PSD’s contribution since it was formed in 1991, placing particular emphasis on the period after the 1994 Genocide to date.  

Yet the fight wouldn’t end here. There was another, involving jostling for campaigns grounds, lying ahead. In Rubavu District the next day, July 28, PSD had to move its rally on the morning it was set to take place from Mahoko grounds to Rugerero Sector headquarters. 

According to the district electoral officials, the RPF had earlier booked the place for its campaign activities and PSD had been asked to go somewhere else. The same is true of Gasiza in Nyabihu District. The rally planned here didn’t take place at all.

It was the second time PSD had to move having initially intended to hold its rally at a primary school ground in Nyakiriba sector but the school authorities blocked that saying they didn’t want anybody to use their grounds for campaigns.

But PSD’s campaign manager, Stanislas Kamanzi, downplayed these incidents saying they weren’t such of a big deal. He noted that although there was some miscommunication, they were satisfied with wherever they finally held their rallies and they were still able to get their message out.